The No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder and the No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans square off in Game 4 on Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Oklahoma City as the 4.5-point favorite, while the over/under is 204.5 points (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before you make any Thunder vs. Pelicans picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 90-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows Oklahoma City point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to torch the Pelicans. He nearly registered a double-double in the Game 3 win, scoring 24 points, while dishing out eight assists, grabbing five rebounds and adding four steals. In three postseason games, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.3 points, 5.7 assists, 4.7 rebounds and two steals in 37 minutes. He poured in 33 points and added five assists, three rebounds and two steals in a 124-92 victory in Game 2.

The model also knows shooting guard C.J. McCollum is one of five New Orleans players averaging 10 or more points this postseason. McCollum opened the series with a 20-point, six-assist and three-rebound performance. He followed that up with 15 points, five rebounds and four assists, and had 16 points, seven assists and five boards in Game 3. During the regular season, he played in 66 games, all starts, and averaged 20 points, 4.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds in 32.7 minutes. During the regular season, McCollum ranked No. 1 in the NBA in 3-point percentage, shooting 42.9% from long range.

The model has simulated Thunder vs. Pelicans 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time!

Who wins Thunder vs. Pelicans, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 90-58 roll on top-rated NBA picks!